Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will bottom between 4,000 and 4,400 during the current April 2024 correction
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“the floor for this correction, this shallow correction, is going to be between 4,400 and 4,000 on the S&P 500”
The S&P 500 will bottom between 4,000 and 4,400 during the current April 2024 correction
- Made on
- 2024-04-18
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-19
The S&P 500's intraday/closing low during the April 2024 pullback falls within the 4,000–4,400 range
Non-conditional, falsifiable prediction. The April 2024 low (~4,953) missed the 4,000-4,400 target by ~550-950 points on the high side; the index never fell into that range through the 2024-07-18 deadline. Prediction did not come true.
Sources
It's Over: The Stock Market is starting to Break
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The April 2024 pullback bottomed on Apr 19, 2024 with a close of 4,967.23 (intraday low ~4,953) — the lowest point of the correction, well ABOVE the predicted 4,000-4,400 range.
Monthly S&P 500 data (March 5,170.57 / April 5,095.46 / May 5,235.23) confirms the index never approached 4,400 during the April 2024 pullback before recovering.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will bottom between 4,000 and 4,400 during the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources