Full record
MisseconomyThe US enters a recession during calendar year 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“there's absolutely no chance you guys can avoid recession 2023”
The US enters a recession during calendar year 2023.
- Made on
- 2023-01-31
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -4.41
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
A US recession (NBER-dated, or two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) begins at some point during calendar year 2023.
Both prongs of the written criterion fail: no NBER-dated recession began in 2023, and there was no two-consecutive-quarter real-GDP contraction. Window closed 2023-12-31; outcome fully determinable. Prediction did not come to pass.
Sources
Tesla Just Dropped a HUGE Bombshell
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has dated no recession beginning in 2023; the last (and only post-COVID) declared contraction was the two-month Feb–Apr 2020 recession. No 2023 peak has ever been announced.
BEA real GDP grew every quarter of 2023 at annual rates (Q1 +2.2%, Q2 +2.1%, Q3 ~+4.9–5.2%, Q4 +3.4%), so there were no two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP in 2023.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-4.41- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US enters a recession during calendar year 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-01-31
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources