Full record
MisseconomyUS inflation reaches double digits (year-over-year CPI at or above 10%) in the near term
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“We're probably staring down the barrel of double digit inflation quite soon.”
US inflation reaches double digits (year-over-year CPI at or above 10%) in the near term
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.4
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-01-05
US year-over-year headline CPI prints at or above 10% at any point by 2023-01-05.
Criterion is fully evaluable and resolved: peak YoY headline CPI in the window was 9.1% (June 2022), below the 10% threshold, so the double-digit-inflation prediction did not come true. resolved_on set to the deadline because the outcome could only be finalized once the entire window closed without a ≥10% print.
Sources
Inflation is a major concern, but it will NOT destroy the U.S. economy
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
US headline CPI peaked at 9.1% year-over-year for the 12 months ended June 2022 (BLS), the largest increase in ~40 years, and never reached or exceeded 10% at any point through the 2023-01-05 deadline. By late 2022 YoY CPI had decelerated (e.g., 6.5% for December 2022). The written criterion — a print at or above 10% — was not met.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.4- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 5 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation reaches double digits (year-over-year CPI at o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2022-01-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources