Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next scheduled meeting
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I still think that that will raise 25 basis points in the next hike but after that they might actually pause for a while”
The Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next scheduled meeting
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-03-22
The FOMC raises the target rate by exactly 25 basis points at its March 21–22, 2023 meeting.
Clean, unambiguous resolution from the primary source (Federal Reserve). The FOMC raised the target rate by exactly 25 bp at its March 21–22, 2023 meeting, matching the written criterion precisely. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
February Inflation (PPI) Report Analysis and Breakdown
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC official press release (Mar 22, 2023): the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent — a 25 basis point increase from the prior 4.50–4.75% range. This is exactly the criterion (25 bp hike at the March 21–22, 2023 meeting).
CNBC: 'Fed announces interest rate hike of 25 basis points' at the March 22, 2023 meeting, bringing the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75%–5.00% (ninth hike of the cycle).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources