Full record
HittechAbout two million Teslas are on the road by the end of 2021
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hittech“by the end of 2021 there's gonna be two million teslas on the road”
About two million Teslas are on the road by the end of 2021
- Made on
- 2021-07-18
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.91
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2021-12-31
The cumulative number of Tesla vehicles delivered/on the road reaches approximately two million by 2021-12-31.
Criterion ('approximately two million ... by 2021-12-31') is met: cumulative deliveries ~2.3M by end of 2021, which is 'about two million' (actually somewhat above). 'On the road' vs 'delivered' distinction is immaterial here — retirements are negligible at this fleet age. Milestone reached during 2021; resolved_on set to the deadline/end of the measurement period.
Sources
How Tesla Just Made $500 Million In a Single Day
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla delivered a record 936,172 vehicles in 2021 (up 87% YoY from 499,550 in 2020), reported in its Q4/FY2021 production-and-deliveries release on Jan 2, 2022. Added to prior-year cumulative deliveries (~1.4M through end of 2020; Tesla built its 1 millionth car in March 2020), total cumulative deliveries since inception reached approximately 2.3 million by 2021-12-31 — i.e. the ~2-million-on-the-road milestone was met and modestly exceeded within the window.
Independent confirmation of the 936,172 FY2021 delivery figure and full-year context.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.91- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
About two million Teslas are on the road by the end of 2021- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-07-18
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources