Full record
MisstechTesla robotaxis become operational in 2023.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misstech“a lot of tesla fanboys misunderstand robo taxis let me be clear about this robot taxis are not coming this year they're not coming next year most likely they're coming in 2023”
Tesla robotaxis become operational in 2023.
- Made on
- 2021-03-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-31
Resolves TRUE if a Tesla robotaxi service (paid, driverless ride-hailing in Tesla vehicles with no human safety driver required) is operational and open to public riders anywhere by 2023-12-31; supervised FSD beta in customer cars does not count.
Direction of evidence is FALSE. No Tesla robotaxi service - paid, driverless, open to public riders - existed anywhere on or before 2023-12-31. The first such service launched 2025-06-22 in Austin, roughly 18 months after the deadline, and even that launch had a human safety monitor onboard, so it would not cleanly satisfy this record's 'no human safety driver required' clause had it fallen inside the window. Throughout 2023 Tesla's offering was supervised FSD Beta in customer-owned cars at SAE Level 2, which the criterion explicitly excludes. Resolved on the deadline date. Both citations are Wikipedia rather than primary: the session's WebSearch budget was exhausted and Tesla's IR quarterly decks are PDFs whose text I could not extract locally (no poppler/PyObjC available, and I did not install packages). The underlying facts here are uncontested, well documented, and consistent across both articles, so I resolved rather than flagging; a verify stage may still want to swap in a primary citation such as Tesla's Q4 2023 shareholder deck or the NHTSA recall notice.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Tesla's first operational robotaxi service open to public riders launched on 2025-06-22 in Austin, Texas, and even at launch operated with a human safety monitor in the front passenger seat. A Tesla ride-hailing app had been in internal testing only since early 2024, i.e. after the record's deadline.
Tesla's consumer vehicles operated at SAE Level 2 automation throughout 2023, with FSD remaining a supervised system requiring continuous driver attention; Tesla did not operate a driverless ride-hailing service in 2023. In February 2023 NHTSA recalled 362,758 FSD Beta vehicles and paused new enrollment.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla robotaxis become operational in 2023.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2021-03-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources