Full record
MisseconomyThe Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of 2023, most likely in October–December
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“we will see a certain amount of interest rate decreases by the end of 2023 probably towards October November December not before”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once by the end of 2023, most likely in October–December
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.78
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2023-12-13
The Fed lowers its target policy rate at least once on or before 2023-12-31.
Criterion: the Fed lowers its target policy rate at least once on or before 2023-12-31. The Fed did NOT cut at any point in 2023 — it hiked to 5.25-5.50% in July 2023 and held that range through the September, November, and December 2023 FOMC meetings. The predicted Oct-Dec 2023 cut never happened; the first cut came in September 2024. Criterion clearly not met. resolved_on set to the final 2023 FOMC decision (2023-12-13), which held rates steady and closed out the window.
Sources
February Inflation (PPI) Report Analysis and Breakdown
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The Fed's last 2023 hike was in July 2023, to 5.25%-5.50%; it then held that range steady for the remainder of 2023 with no cuts, and the first cut did not occur until September 2024.
The Fed left rates unchanged at its September 2023 meeting; it held again in November and December 2023, cutting rates zero times in the calendar year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.78- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once b…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources