Full record
HitmarketsTesla's gross margins will continue to erode in the short term.
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“further margin erosion for sure that's going to continue”
Tesla's gross margins will continue to erode in the short term.
- Made on
- 2023-10-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.99
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-04-23
Tesla's automotive gross margin declines further (below the Q3 2023 level) in at least one quarter within ~12 months of 2023-10-19.
Criterion (automotive gross margin declines below the Q3 2023 level of 18.7% in at least one quarter within ~12 months) satisfied: Q1 2024 automotive gross margin 18.5% < 18.7%, with continued erosion through 2024. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Tesla's DISASTER Earnings Reveal a Serious Problem
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Tesla Q3 2023 total automotive gross margin was 18.7% (10-Q, three months ended 2023-09-30).
Tesla Q1 2024 total automotive gross margin was 18.5% (10-Q, three months ended 2024-03-31, reported 2024-04-23), below the Q3 2023 level; margins eroded further later in 2024 (ex-credit automotive gross margin fell to ~14.6% mid-2024) driven by lower ASPs, Cybertruck ramp costs, and reduced regulatory-credit revenue.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.99- How sure they sounded
- 97%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Tesla's gross margins will continue to erode in the short t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2023-10-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources