Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 400 (midcap) will post a positive return over the 12 months following the early-August 2024 sell-off
A scored prediction by Tom Nash, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the median return is 21.74% on the S&P 400 in the 12 months following this occurrence so the good news if you are a long-term investor the 12 month period after last week is historically very very good 80% of the time you're going to get green”
The S&P 400 (midcap) will post a positive return over the 12 months following the early-August 2024 sell-off
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-12
S&P 400 total return is positive over the 12 months following the Aug 2024 sell-off.
Deadline Aug 12, 2025 has passed. Best available primary-adjacent figure is the Vanguard fund's 1-year total return ending Aug 31, 2025 (+6.86%), whose window is offset by ~2.5 weeks from the exact Aug 12→Aug 12 window; the offset does not change the sign. Direction (positive total return) is unambiguous across sources. For maximal precision the later stage could pull exact S&P 400 Total Return (^SP400TR) levels on 2024-08-12 and 2025-08-12 from ycharts.com/indices/%5ESP400TR, but that is not needed to establish the criterion is met on direction. No outcome value assigned here.
Sources
Critical Warning For Investors (Get Ready)
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P MidCap 400 Index one-year total return for the period Sept 1, 2024 – Aug 31, 2025 was +6.86% (Vanguard S&P Mid-Cap 400 Index Fund shareholder report), a close proxy for the Aug 12, 2024 → Aug 12, 2025 window and clearly positive.
SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) historical return record corroborates a positive trailing-12-month return over the Aug 2024–Aug 2025 span.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 400 (midcap) will post a positive return over the 1…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 2, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources