Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates at its July 2026 FOMC meeting.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume”
The Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates at its July 2026 FOMC meeting.
- Made on
- 2026-07-28
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-07-29
True if the FOMC meeting concluding Wednesday 2026-07-29 leaves the target fed funds range unchanged or lowers it — i.e. no increase in the target range is announced that day. A balance-sheet (QT) change with no increase in the target range still resolves true.
Clean official resolution with no conflicting evidence: the sole July 2026 FOMC meeting concluded on the exact date named in the criterion (Wednesday 2026-07-29) and left the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent. Under the criterion as written ('true if ... leaves the target fed funds range unchanged or lowers it'), the 'unchanged' branch is the one that occurred. Worth carrying forward for context, though it does not change the resolution: three of twelve voters dissented in favor of a 25bp hike, so a hike was live enough to draw a three-way dissent — the largest reasonable read is that this was a closer call than the headline suggests, but the announced decision, which is what the criterion tests, was no increase. The archive_url was confirmed present and HTTP 200 via the Wayback availability API (snapshot 2026-08-01 12:32:31 UTC); direct fetch of web.archive.org is blocked from this environment, so the statement text quoted above was read from the live federalreserve.gov page, with the calendar page serving as the corroborating official cross-check. Deadline 2026-07-29 met on the day; resolved_on set to the announcement date.
Sources
Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume. MU P/E is 5.3X now vs 12.6X in Nov 2025... sell-off in bottlenecks seems overdone
Fundstrat Direct ·
VIDEO FLASH: Fed not expected to raise rates Wed, but QT could resume
Fundstrat ·
Tom Lee: Crypto Is Having Its 1934 Moment
Fundstrat (YouTube) / CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve official FOMC policy statement released Wednesday 2026-07-29 at the conclusion of the July 28-29, 2026 meeting. Verbatim, directly on the criterion: 'The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.' The target range was therefore left UNCHANGED; no increase in the target range was announced that day. On the criterion's balance-sheet clause, the statement continued the Committee's approach of 'maintaining ample reserves in the banking system' — no balance-sheet action that would constitute a target-range increase. Vote was 9-3; the three dissenters (Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan) each favored a quarter-point rate INCREASE, but the dissent did not carry and the range announced was unchanged.
Federal Reserve official 2026 FOMC meeting calendar, confirming the meeting-identity element of the criterion: the 2026 schedule is January 27-28, March 17-18, April 28-29, June 16-17, July 28-29, September 15-16, October 27-28, December 8-9. The July meeting is the two-day July 28-29 meeting, i.e. it concluded Wednesday 2026-07-29 exactly as the criterion specifies, and it is the only July 2026 FOMC meeting. The calendar links that meeting's statement (monetary20260729a1.pdf). Remaining 2026 meetings fall after the deadline and are not in scope.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates at its Ju…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-07-28
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources