Full record
HitmarketsThe SpaceX IPO trades well in its market debut.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Um you know, we expect it to trade well, because it's an important company and you know the Elon Musk himself is an N of 1 person, but there's also a a pretty good road map for why there's a future growth and a a a very big addressable market.”
The SpaceX IPO trades well in its market debut.
- Made on
- 2026-06-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-06-12
SpaceX shares close their first trading session at or above the IPO offer price, that is, a debut-day gain rather than a break of issue. A first-day close below the offer price resolves incorrect.
Resolves cleanly on the written criterion: first-session close ($160.95) was above the IPO offer price ($135.00), a debut-day gain of 19.2% rather than a break of issue. Three independent confirmations agree (exchange price data, the $135 pricing reports, and the later 'first time below IPO price' articles which bound the debut close from below). TIMING FLAG for the verify/quantify stage, non-blocking: the record's made_on date (2026-06-12) is the same day SpaceX began trading. The verify stage may want to establish whether the underlying statement was made before the opening trade or after the debut was already underway, since a statement made intraday or post-close would bear on whether the outcome was already known and therefore on whether this is a genuine forward-looking prediction. This does not affect the factual resolution above. Sourcing note: the CNBC URL cited alongside the price-data evidence returned HTTP 403 to automated fetching; its headline and date were read from news-index listings, and the underlying close was independently confirmed via exchange daily bars.
Sources
Is the SpaceX IPO a Market Top? Tom Lee Weighs In
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
SpaceX (SPCX, NASDAQ) first trading session on 2026-06-12: opened at $150.00 and closed at $160.95 (intraday high $176.52, low $150.00) on volume of 168,530,815 shares. Against the $135.00 IPO offer price this is a debut-day close 19.2% above issue - a gain, not a break of issue. Retrieved as NASDAQ daily bars (IBKR market data, contract_id 890493863).
IPO offer price confirmed at $135.00 per share by multiple independent outlets: Reuters, 2026-06-12, 'Musk's SpaceX prices record $75 billion IPO at $135 a share'; NBC News, 2026-06-11, 'SpaceX locks in IPO price of $135, making it largest stock debut ever'; and Motley Fool, 2026-06-11, 'SpaceX Goes Public at $135 a Share.'
Strong negative-confirmation that the debut close was above issue: CNBC on 2026-07-15 headlines 'SpaceX stock sinks below $135 IPO price for the first time', and NBC News on 2026-07-16 reports the stock 'closes below its IPO price for the first time since it went public'. If mid-July was the first sub-offer close, the 2026-06-12 debut close was necessarily at or above the $135 offer price.
Contemporaneous debut-day reporting consistent with the price data: CNBC, 2026-06-12, 'SpaceX IPO takeaways: SPCX closes at $161, jumping 19% after record debut'; Morningstar, 2026-06-12, 'SpaceX Jumps 19% In Debut, but Hurdles Lie Ahead'.
Corrections
- horizon deadline: The IPO's first trading session (the resolution event) was 2026-06-12; made_on is Friday 2026-06-12, so 'this Friday' is that same day, not 2026-06-19. Confirmed by CNBC/SpaceX.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The SpaceX IPO trades well in its market debut.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-06-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources