Full record
MissmarketsSemiconductor stocks more than recover their 23 June 2026 one-day 7% drop within one month.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Semis -7% 1D. This is the 18th time since 2011. 88% of the time, Semis more than recover 1M later. Buy that dip.”
Semiconductor stocks more than recover their 23 June 2026 one-day 7% drop within one month.
- Made on
- 2026-06-23
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.1
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-07-23
A broad semiconductor benchmark (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, SOX, with the SMH ETF as a proxy) closes above its 2026-06-22 close, more than fully recovering the 23 June 2026 one-day drop of about 7%, at some point on or before 2026-07-23. If the benchmark never regains its pre-drop level inside that month, the claim resolves incorrect.
Resolves unambiguously against the written criterion, on both the named benchmark (SOX) and its named proxy (SMH), and on both a closing-basis and the more claim-favourable intraday-basis reading. Neither measure ever regained the 2026-06-22 pre-drop close at any point on or before 2026-07-23; the closest approach was 2026-06-30 (SOX -2.65%, SMH -1.95% versus base), after which semis weakened materially into late July. The criterion's stated drop size ('about 7%') was verified rather than assumed: -7.87% on SOX and -7.01% on SMH for the 2026-06-23 session. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Semis -7% 1D. This is the 18th time since 2011. 88% of the time, Semis more than recover 1M later. Buy that dip.
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
Evidence of what happened
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) daily data from Nasdaq: 2026-06-22 close 14,634.72; 2026-06-23 close 13,482.51, a one-day drop of -7.87% confirming the drop the claim refers to. Across every session from 2026-06-24 through 2026-07-23 the highest close was 14,246.96 (2026-06-30), still 2.65% BELOW the 2026-06-22 base. Even the highest intraday print in that window (14,332.76 on 2026-06-30) never reached the 2026-06-22 close. SOX never regained its pre-drop level inside the month.
SMH ETF (the proxy named in the criterion) daily data from Nasdaq, same result: 2026-06-22 close $668.91; 2026-06-23 close $622.05, a one-day drop of -7.01% matching the criterion's 'about 7%'. Best close in the 2026-06-24 to 2026-07-23 window was $655.89 (2026-06-30), still 1.95% below the base; best intraday high was $659.74, also below. SMH closed at $580.17 on the 2026-07-23 deadline, about 13% below the pre-drop level.
Contemporaneous confirmation of the 2026-06-23 semiconductor selloff the claim responds to: Investopedia, 2026-06-23, 'Markets News, June 23, 2026: Stocks Fall as Tech Sell-Off Expands to Memory, Chips'.
Additional same-day coverage of the chip drawdown: TheStreet, 2026-06-23, 'Stock Market Today (June 23, 2026): Nasdaq, S&P 500 fall as BoFA rate hike note, Asian market tumble sends semis sinking'.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.1- How sure they sounded
- 88%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Semiconductor stocks more than recover their 23 June 2026 o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources