Full record
MissmarketsCrude oil prices fall over the month following April 17, 2026
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“crude honestly goes uh straight lower over the next month”
Crude oil prices fall over the month following April 17, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-04-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-05-17
Front-month WTI crude oil settles below its 2026-04-17 level on or before 2026-05-17.
Directional claim (crude falls over the month after 4/17) is falsified: front-month WTI rose sharply on a U.S.-Iran / Strait of Hormuz supply shock, from ~$82.6-83.9 on 4/17 to ~$95-108 through mid-May, and never settled below the 4/17 level. CAVEAT logged for the quantify/score stage: the 4/17 front-month print carries a data-labeling/expiry-rollover uncertainty. The 4/17 daily bar shows an anomalous intraday plunge (June contract low ~$79, close ~$82.59) around the May-contract expiry; if the true 4/17 front-month settlement were materially higher (~$88-91), the earliest post-4/17 settlement (~$87.4 on 4/20) could sit marginally below it and technically satisfy the 'ever settled below' test. Under the best-available measured reference (~$82.6-83.9) the criterion is clearly NOT met and the directional outcome is unambiguous, so status is set to resolved rather than flagged; the sensitivity is noted here for transparency. Front-month convention: May-2026 contract on 4/17, rolling to June-2026 which remained front-month through the 5/17 window end (June expiry 5/18). resolved_on set to the 2026-05-17 deadline. This stage assigns no outcome value and no score.
Sources
Oil Is Collapsing. Fundstrat's Technical Read on What's Next.
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Exchange futures data (Interactive Brokers / ICE-listed WTI, daily settlements). Front-month WTI on 2026-04-17: the expiring May-2026 contract settled ~$83.85 and the next front-month June-2026 contract (front-month from ~4/21 through its 5/18 expiry, i.e. spanning the whole test window) settled ~$82.59. Over 2026-04-20 through 2026-05-17 the June front-month settled in a ~$87-108 range with a minimum settlement of ~$87.4 (2026-04-20) and rose to ~$101-108 by mid-May; it never settled below the ~$82.6-83.9 level of 2026-04-17. Criterion (front-month WTI settles below its 4/17 level on or before 5/17) NOT met.
Independent corroboration of a sharp rise (not a fall) in the month after 4/17: 'Oil Prices Whipsaw as U.S.-Iran Conflict Shakes Markets' reports June WTI futures during 2026-05-03..07 swinging between $88.66 and $107.46 and closing the week near $97/bbl, driven by U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Early-May front-month WTI in the high-$80s to $107 is far above the mid-April level, confirming crude ROSE over the month following 4/17.
Further corroboration that oil gained through this period on Iran tensions rather than falling.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Crude oil prices fall over the month following April 17, 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-04-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources