Full record
MissmarketsThe stock market will finish March 2026 as an up month (positive return).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“And you know, I would I would expect actually March to be an up month for the stock market.”
The stock market will finish March 2026 as an up month (positive return).
- Made on
- 2026-03-02
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.56
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-03-31
The S&P 500's close on 2026-03-31 is higher than its close on 2026-02-28 (positive monthly return).
Criterion: SPX close on 2026-03-31 > close on 2026-02-28. 2026-02-28 fell on a weekend; the operative last-February close (2026-02-27) was 6,878.88. March 31 close 6,528.52 is lower, so March was a NEGATIVE month. Prediction of an up month is contradicted by the data. No outcome/score assigned.
Sources
Tom Lee Says the Selloff Is Almost Over
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 close 2026-02-27 (last Feb trading day; 2026-02-28 was a Saturday) = 6,878.88; close 2026-03-31 = 6,528.52 — a monthly decline of ~5.1% (CBOE SPX daily data via Interactive Brokers).
Independent recaps: March 2026 was a down month, ~ -4.98% total return, the S&P 500's worst month since 2022 amid the Iran-war selloff.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.56- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The stock market will finish March 2026 as an up month (pos…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2026-03-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources