Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will embark on a sustained rally following the Fed's end of quantitative tightening (QT), mirroring the 2019 post-QT rally.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“I think the same effect's going to happen, which is positive. And that's doubish for stocks.”
The S&P 500 will embark on a sustained rally following the Fed's end of quantitative tightening (QT), mirroring the 2019 post-QT rally.
- Made on
- 2025-12-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-03-03
Within ~3 months of the Fed ending QT (early Dec 2025), the S&P 500 posts a clear sustained rally comparable to the 2019 analogue — a double-digit percentage advance over roughly 16 trading days counts as a hit; a flat or declining market counts as a miss.
Criterion requires, within ~3 months of the Fed ending QT (early Dec 2025), a clear sustained rally comparable to the 2019 analogue — a double-digit advance over roughly 16 trading days = hit; flat or declining = miss. Outcome facts: the largest advance from the QT-end baseline was ~2% (to the late-Dec intraday high of ~6,952.84), January gained ~1.5%, February closed lower, and the deadline close (6,816.63 on 2026-03-03) sat below the Dec 3 baseline (6,849.72). No ~16-day double-digit rally occurred anywhere in the window; the market was flat-to-declining — squarely the criterion's 'miss' condition. Fully resolvable; no outcome value assigned per stage separation.
Sources
Tom Lee: 6 Reasons December Could Rally + Cyber Monday Sale Update
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Fed ended QT on Dec 1, 2025. S&P 500 closing levels around the prediction date (FRED SP500 series): Dec 1 = 6,812.63; Dec 2 = 6,829.37; Dec 3 (made_on) = 6,849.72. This is the rally baseline.
The post-QT advance topped out at an intraday all-time high of ~6,952.84 in late December 2025 (index closed 2025 at 6,896.24). From the ~6,800-6,850 early-December baseline that is a maximum advance of only ~2%, far short of the criterion's double-digit (~10%+) move over ~16 trading days.
January 2026 finished up only ~1.5%; February 2026 closed in the red for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as mega-cap valuations came under pressure.
On the deadline date, the S&P 500 closed at 6,816.63 on March 3, 2026 (down 0.94% that day) — below the Dec 3, 2025 baseline of 6,849.72, confirming a roughly flat-to-declining market over the full ~3-month window with no sustained double-digit rally.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will embark on a sustained rally following the…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-12-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources