Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 rises about 5% between 2025-11-26 and the end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“Uh I I think we're set up for a really strong rally into year end. ... But we know into year end we have the positive seasonals especially given how strong October the mid October was.”
The S&P 500 rises about 5% between 2025-11-26 and the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-11-26
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
The S&P 500's final close of 2025 is at least 5% above its close on 2025-11-26. Because he said 'up 5%' rather than a range, a gain of 4.5% or more counts as correct given the approximation; below that is a miss.
Miss by a wide margin. The index needed roughly +5% (criterion floor +4.5%) and delivered +0.48%, under a tenth of the predicted move. The index did grind higher into late December, touching 6,932.05 on 2025-12-24, but even that intraday-basis peak close was only +1.75% from the 2025-11-26 reference, so no reasonable reading of 'about 5%' is satisfied. The final week gave back ground, closing the year at 6,845.50. Both sources agree exactly, and the criterion's two anchor dates (2025-11-26 close, final close of 2025) are unambiguous trading days requiring no interpretation. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Tom Lee: "We're Set Up for a Really Strong Rally Into Year-End"
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED SP500 daily closes (licensed from S&P Dow Jones Indices): the S&P 500 closed at 6,812.61 on 2025-11-26 and at 6,845.50 on 2025-12-31, the final trading day of 2025. That is a gain of +0.483%, against the 4.5% minimum the criterion allows for an 'about 5%' claim.
Independent cross-check on the Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily series: identical closes to the cent, 6,812.61 on 2025-11-26 and 6,845.50 on 2025-12-31. The series also confirms 2025-12-31 was the last trading session of 2025 (next observation 2026-01-02).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 rises about 5% between 2025-11-26 and the end o…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources