Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 finishes November 2025 higher than it started the month.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“we still think November is going to be an up month. I mean with a lot of confidence.”
The S&P 500 finishes November 2025 higher than it started the month.
- Made on
- 2025-11-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.96
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-11-28
The S&P 500's last close of November 2025 is higher than its last close of October 2025. Equal or lower is a miss.
Fully determinate on the written criterion, no conflicting evidence; three independent sources agree to the cent. FLAG FOR THE SCORING STAGE, resolution-wording nuance rather than an evidence conflict: the written criterion is explicit and unambiguous ('last close of November 2025 is higher than its last close of October 2025'), and on that test November finished higher by +8.89 points. However, the claim_canonical phrase 'higher than it started the month' admits a second reading, and under that alternative the answer flips: November's first session (2025-11-03) opened at 6882.32, above the 2025-11-28 close of 6849.09 (confirmed at 6882.32 by both Yahoo ^GSPC and the IBKR SPX feed). I resolved per the written criterion, which also matches the universal market convention for month-over-month index performance (prior month-end close to current month-end close) and matches how November 2025 was reported (+0.13%). Recording the alternative here for transparency; the margin is genuinely thin (0.13%) though not within any measurement error, since all three sources agree exactly. Not flagged needs_human_review because the operative criterion text is unambiguous and the underlying data is unanimous. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Tom Lee Explains Why S&P 7,000+ Is Still Possible
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
FRED series SP500 (S&P Dow Jones Indices via the St. Louis Fed): last close of October 2025 = 6840.20 (2025-10-31); last close of November 2025 = 6849.09 (2025-11-28). The November close is higher by +8.89 index points (+0.130%), so the criterion's 'higher, equal or lower is a miss' test is satisfied on the higher side.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily OHLC, independent of FRED, matching to the cent: 2025-10-31 close 6840.20; 2025-11-28 close 6849.09. Also confirms 2025-11-28 was the final November 2025 session (2025-11-27 was the Thanksgiving holiday; next session 2025-12-01), so the correct pair of closes is being compared.
Context on how thin the margin was and how it was reached: the S&P 500 fell as low as a 6538.76 close on 2025-11-20 (down 301.44 points, or 4.4%, from the October close) before rallying over the final four sessions (6705.12, 6765.88, 6812.61, 6849.09) to finish the month fractionally green. November 2025 was a marginally positive month, +0.13%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.96- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 finishes November 2025 higher than it started t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources