Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 gains at least 200 index points during November 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“So, basically, November should be really strong. I think at least 200 points on the S&P.”
The S&P 500 gains at least 200 index points during November 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-11-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.31
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-11-28
The S&P 500's close on the last trading day of November 2025 (2025-11-28) is at least 200 index points above its close on the last trading day of October 2025 (2025-10-31). Index points, not percent. Month-end close to month-end close: an intramonth gain of 200 points that is not held to the November close does not satisfy the claim.
Fully determinate, no conflicting evidence. Three mutually independent price sources agree to the cent on both measurement closes: FRED/S&P Dow Jones Indices, Yahoo Finance ^GSPC, and the IBKR CBOE SPX index feed (contract 416904, daily bars) which returned the same 6840.20 and 6849.09. The criterion's assumed measurement date (2025-11-28 as the last November trading day) is confirmed correct by the session calendar. Measured gain +8.89 points against a required +200 points. No outcome value assigned here per stage scope. NOTE FOR THE SCORING STAGE: this record and tom-lee-202511-sp500-november-up-month read the exact same pair of closes at different thresholds, so they are mechanically correlated and their evidence must stay consistent; they nonetheless point in opposite directions (+8.89 clears a bare 'up month' bar but falls 191.11 short of the 200-point bar). That is a true feature of the data, not an inconsistency.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
FRED series SP500 (S&P 500 index level, sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis): close 2025-10-31 = 6840.20; close 2025-11-28 = 6849.09. Month-end close to month-end close change = +8.89 index points (+0.130%), versus the +200.00 index points the criterion requires. Shortfall = 191.11 points.
Reproducible FRED CSV endpoint for the same series and window (2025-10-29 to 2025-12-31), returning 2025-10-31 = 6840.20 and 2025-11-28 = 6849.09.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily OHLC, independent of FRED, matching to the cent: 2025-10-31 close 6840.20; 2025-11-28 close 6849.09. The session sequence also confirms the criterion's stated measurement date: the last November 2025 trading day was Friday 2025-11-28 (2025-11-27 was the Thanksgiving holiday) and the next session was 2025-12-01.
Intramonth check on the criterion's explicit carve-out (an intramonth +200 not held to the close would not count anyway): the highest S&P 500 intraday high in all of November 2025 was 6882.32 on 2025-11-03, only +42.12 above the 2025-10-31 close of 6840.20. A +200-point intramonth level would have required 7040.20, which the index never approached. The criterion therefore fails on both the close-to-close test and the more generous intramonth reading.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.31- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 gains at least 200 index points during November…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources