Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin sets a new all-time high by 2026-01-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“I do think Bitcoin can make an all-time high by the end of January, a lot of it's gonna depend on equities recovering, which we expect it to.”
Bitcoin sets a new all-time high by 2026-01-31.
- Made on
- 2025-11-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-01-31
Spot BTC/USD trades above its prior all-time high (about $125,100, set in October 2025) at any point on or before 2026-01-31. Condition, operationalized before evidence: 'equities recovering' means the S&P 500's close on the last trading day of January 2026 is higher than its close on the last trading day before the statement (2025-11-28). If that condition failed, the record is void rather than wrong; if it held, the bitcoin leg scores on its own.
Resolved as a miss rather than void, because the escape condition did not trigger. The criterion pre-committed to defining 'equities recovering' as the S&P 500's last January 2026 close exceeding its 2025-11-28 close; that test passed (6,939.03 vs 6,849.09, +1.31%), so the bitcoin leg is scored on its own and the record is wrong rather than voided. Worth noting the condition passed on the narrow definition chosen: the S&P was up only 1.3% over the two months and had a volatile January, so a differently-worded 'recovery' test might have gone the other way. The pre-registered definition governs. On the bitcoin leg itself there is no ambiguity: the window peak of about $97,964 on 2026-01-14 falls roughly 22% short of the October 2025 record, and bitcoin ended the window near $78,648 after a steep late-January decline. No new all-time high occurred. No conflicting evidence; Coinbase and Kraken agree on the peak date and level.
Sources
BitMine buys $70M ETH while Tom Lee revises Bitcoin prediction
Cointelegraph ·
Evidence of what happened
Condition test, operationalized in the criterion before evidence ('equities recovering' = S&P 500 close on the last trading day of January 2026 above its close on 2025-11-28). FRED SP500: 2025-11-28 close 6,849.09; 2026-01-30 close 6,939.03. January 2026's last trading day was Friday 2026-01-30 (2026-01-31 was a Saturday; the series jumps to 2026-02-02). The condition HELD, by +1.31%, so the record is not void and the bitcoin leg scores on its own.
Bitcoin leg, Coinbase Exchange BTC-USD daily candles for 2025-11-30 through 2026-01-31 (63 calendar days, no gaps): the highest intraday print was $97,963.62 on 2026-01-14, short of the roughly $125,100 prior record by about $27,136. Bitcoin never approached a new all-time high in the window and fell sharply at the end of January, closing 2026-01-31 at $78,648.
Independent cross-check on Kraken (XXBTZUSD daily OHLC): window maximum $97,899.70, also on 2026-01-14. Both venues agree the window peak was below $98,000.
Prior all-time-high reference confirmed on Coinbase: intraday high $126,296 on 2025-10-06 (the record's cited ~$125,100 figure is venue-dependent; aggregator and exchange ATH prints differ by a percent or two). The window peak of roughly $97,964 is far below every published version of the October 2025 record, so the exact ATH figure used does not affect the outcome.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC cross-check of the condition dates: 2025-11-28 close 6,849.09 and 2026-01-30 close 6,939.03, matching FRED to the cent, and confirming 2026-01-30 as January's final session (2026-01-19 absent for the MLK holiday, next observation 2026-02-02).
Corrections
- conditional condition met: The pre-registered condition ('equities recovering' = S&P 500 last-January-2026 close above its 2025-11-28 close) held (6,939.03 > 6,849.09, +1.31%), as documented in resolution.evidence. Setting condition_met=true so the bitcoin leg scores as a miss rather than voiding.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin sets a new all-time high by 2026-01-31.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources