Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin trades at or above $150,000 (his stated $150,000 to $200,000 range) by 2025-12-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“I think we can still get to $150,000-$200,000 for Bitcoin, and then something like $7,000 for Ethereum”
Bitcoin trades at or above $150,000 (his stated $150,000 to $200,000 range) by 2025-12-31.
- Made on
- 2025-11-04
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Spot BTC/USD reaches $150,000 or higher, the low end of the stated $150,000 to $200,000 range taken as the committed level, at any point on or before 2025-12-31. A window high below $150,000 is a miss.
Fully determinate, no conflicting evidence; two independent major exchanges agree. The criterion takes $150,000 (the low end of the stated $150,000 to $200,000 range) as the committed level; the best BTC achieved in the window was $107,270 to $107,400 depending on venue, and the direction of travel over the window was sharply down, ending the year near $87,500. The gap to target is far larger than any plausible exchange or vendor discrepancy. No outcome value assigned per stage scope.
Sources
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Can Still Reach $150,000 By Year End Despite 'Uptober' Flop
Yahoo Finance / Benzinga ·
Evidence of what happened
Coinbase Exchange (major-exchange spot BTC/USD) daily candles for 2025-11-01 through 2025-12-31, 61 bars with no gaps. The highest BTC/USD print in the window from the prediction date onward (2025-11-04 to 2025-12-31) was $107,269.85 on 2025-11-04. BTC closed 2025 at $87,497.94 on 2025-12-31, and traded as low as $80,524.65 on 2025-11-21. The window peak is about 28% below the $150,000 committed level.
Kraken spot BTC/USD (XXBTZUSD) daily OHLC, an independent exchange, corroborates: highest high 2025-11-04 to 2025-12-31 was $107,400.00 (2025-11-11); 2025-12-31 close $87,500.10. Agrees with Coinbase within normal cross-exchange basis.
Robustness check against any reading of the window start: BTC/USD's highest print in the whole of calendar 2025 (all 365 days, Coinbase Exchange) was $126,296.00 on 2025-10-06, which is the 2025 peak and predates the prediction. Even that annual high is about 16% below $150,000, so BTC did not reach $150,000 at any point in 2025 under any window-start interpretation.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin trades at or above $150,000 (his stated $150,000 to…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-04
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources