Full record
MisscryptoBitcoin reaches $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“Eventually we consolidate and then we rally into year end - $150,000 to $200,000 for Bitcoin, and something like $7,000 for Ethereum.”
Bitcoin reaches $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-11-03
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
BTC/USD (CoinGecko daily close, or any major spot exchange print) reaches $150,000 or more at any point between 2025-11-03 and 2025-12-31 inclusive. Reaching the $150,000 lower bound of the stated $150,000-$200,000 range resolves true; a period high below $150,000 resolves false. Level reached at any point in the window counts; no requirement that it be held into the year-end close.
The criterion is a simple threshold-touch test and the margin is enormous: a period high of $110,499.52 against a $150,000 requirement. Because the criterion counts the level reached at ANY point in the window, I checked the full hourly series and the per-day maxima rather than only closes, and confirmed no spike anywhere near the threshold. Two independent aggregators agree. Context worth carrying forward: total crypto market cap peaked on 2025-10-05, a month BEFORE Lee made this call on 2025-11-03, and Bitcoin fell throughout the forecast window, bottoming at $82,222 on 2025-11-21 - so the window high sits exactly at the window open. No conflicting evidence found. I did not assign an outcome value.
Sources
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Can Still Reach $150K-$200K by Year's End, Despite October's 'Mini Tsunami'
Bitcoin Magazine ·
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Can Still Reach $150,000 By Year End Despite 'Uptober' Flop
Yahoo Finance / Benzinga ·
I think you're going to see a crypto rally into year end, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Full hourly BTC/USD series from CoinGecko across the exact criterion window 2025-11-03 to 2025-12-31 inclusive (60 days): the PERIOD HIGH was $110,499.52, printed at 2025-11-03 00:00 UTC, i.e. at the very start of the window. The period low was $82,221.74 on 2025-11-21. Bitcoin therefore peaked at 26.3% below the $150,000 lower bound of the stated range and never approached it - the shortfall to the threshold was $39,500.
Daily maxima across the window confirm the peak was at the window's opening and that BTC declined thereafter: the six highest daily highs in the whole window were 2025-11-03 = $110,500, 2025-11-04 = $107,170, 2025-11-11 = $106,637, 2025-11-10 = $106,488, 2025-11-09 = $105,239, 2025-11-12 = $104,992. No day in November or December 2025 produced a high above $110,500, so no single-print spike to $150,000 is being missed.
Independent second exchange-data aggregator (Coinpaprika) corroborates the price level: BTC closed 2025-12-30 at $87,857.94 and 2025-12-31 at $88,220.50, and was $110,838.44 on 2025-10-24. Both sources put Bitcoin in the high-$80,000s at the end of the window and around $110,000 at the start, far below $150,000.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Exact passage is in Lee's own Fundstrat transcript 8SROu_1yWQQ (2025-11-03: 'we could still get to 150, 200 for Bitcoin') — strongest tier; the reputable-outlet direct quote corroborates. Currently understated.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Bitcoin reaches $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-11-03
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources