The S&P 500 reaches at least 7,000 by 2025-12-31.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2025-12-31

The S&P 500 trades at or above 7,000 (intraday print or closing level) at any point on or before 2025-12-31.

Criterion not met, but by a narrow margin, so this was verified with extra care. The criterion accepts EITHER an intraday print or a closing level, and both were checked: max 2025 intraday 6,945.77 (2025-12-26) and max 2025 close 6,932.05 (2025-12-24), from two independent providers (Yahoo Finance ^GSPC for intraday, FRED/S&P Dow Jones Indices for closes). The strongest single piece of evidence is the crossing date: the S&P 500's first-ever print at or above 7,000 was 7,002.28 intraday on 2026-01-28, four weeks past the deadline — which rules out the possibility that a 2025 crossing was simply missing from one data feed. Shortfall at the deadline was 0.78% on the best intraday print. No conflicting evidence found. Outcome value deliberately not assigned (later stage).

Sources

• History shows probabilities favor S&P 500 7,000 by YE25 given YTD gains. Gov't shutdown = no jobs report Friday but weak ADP = 'dovish' Fed

  Fundstrat Direct · 2025-10-02

  Source

• Tom Lee sees S&P 500 topping 7,000 by year-end, says don't be fooled by shutdown calamity talk

  CNBC · 2025-10-02

  Source

• Video: Macro Minute: Oct off to a good start, gaining 0.77% so far, and S&P 500 [year-end target seems low]

  Fundstrat Direct · 2025-10-06

  Source

• Video: Macro Minute: 5 reasons we still expect a YE S&P 500 rally to 7,000-7,300

  Fundstrat Direct · 2025-11-24

  Source

• Tom Lee: SPX 7000 in 2025

  Markets.com · 2025-10-24

  Source

• Strategist Tom Lee says the S&P 500 can reach as high as 7,000 — if two conditions are met

  MarketWatch via Morningstar · 2025-08-20

  Source