Full record
MisscryptoCryptocurrencies rally between late October 2025 and the end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misscrypto“I think you're going to see a crypto rally into the end of the year”
Cryptocurrencies rally between late October 2025 and the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-10-24
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation (CoinGecko daily close) on 2025-12-31 is higher than its 2025-10-24 value. Corroborating check on the two assets Lee named: BTC/USD and ETH/USD closes on 2025-12-31 versus their 2025-10-24 closes. Total market cap up with both majors up resolves true; total market cap down resolves false; a split outcome (market cap up but both majors down, or vice versa) goes to human review.
All three legs of the criterion point the same way: total market cap down 19.3%, BTC down about 20%, ETH down about 23-24%. Under the criterion's own decision rule, 'total market cap down resolves false' and the split-outcome path to human review is NOT triggered, because both named majors moved in the same direction as the aggregate. Two independent aggregators (CoinMarketCap and Coinpaprika) agree with CoinGecko on the direction and roughly on the magnitude. I did not assign an outcome value. SOURCE SUBSTITUTION - PLEASE NOTE: the criterion specifies CoinGecko daily close for TOTAL market cap, but CoinGecko's historical global market-cap chart is a Pro-subscriber-only endpoint (the free API returns error 10005), so the total-market-cap figures above come from CoinMarketCap instead. I validated that this substitution does not change the answer by reconstructing a CoinGecko-consistent total: CoinGecko's own BTC market cap of $2.1949T on 2025-10-24 divided by the 59.27% BTC dominance for that date implies a total of about $3.70T, and CoinGecko's BTC market cap of $1.7659T on 2025-12-31 divided by 59.07% dominance implies about $2.99T - matching the CoinMarketCap series to within rounding on both dates. The BTC and ETH legs of the criterion do use CoinGecko exactly as specified.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation fell sharply over the measurement window. CoinMarketCap historical global metrics: 2025-10-24 total market cap = $3.7037 trillion; 2025-12-31 total market cap = $2.9889 trillion. That is a decline of 19.30%. Within the window the peak was $3.8737T on 2025-10-27 and the trough $2.8795T on 2025-12-19 - the market's high came three days after the claim was made, and it fell for the rest of the period.
Corroborating check on the first asset Lee named, BTC/USD (CoinGecko daily snapshots at 00:00 UTC): 2025-10-24 = $110,109.31; 2025-12-31 = $88,363.72. Bitcoin fell 19.75% over the window. CoinGecko's BTC market cap fell from $2.1949T to $1.7659T across the same two dates.
Corroborating check on the second asset Lee named, ETH/USD (CoinGecko): 2025-10-24 = $3,857.59; 2025-12-31 = $2,967.98 (hourly series; the 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC snapshot is $2,970.03). Ether fell about 23.1% over the window. CoinGecko's ETH market cap fell from $465.6B to $358.5B.
Independent second aggregator (Coinpaprika) confirms both majors fell: BTC $110,838.44 on 2025-10-24 to $88,220.50 on 2025-12-31 (-20.4%); ETH $3,928.58 on 2025-10-24 to $2,977.01 on 2025-12-31 (-24.2%). Coinpaprika also dates the all-time high in total crypto market cap to 2025-10-05, i.e. before the claim was made, consistent with a market already rolling over.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Cryptocurrencies rally between late October 2025 and the en…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-10-24
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources