Full record
HitmarketsThe US stock market (S&P 500) will post a positive return for September 2025
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Contrary to consensus, we think September is going to be an up month”
The US stock market (S&P 500) will post a positive return for September 2025
- Made on
- 2025-09-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.51
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-30
S&P 500 closing level on 2025-09-30 is higher than its closing level on 2025-08-29 (last trading day of August 2025), i.e. a positive price return for the month of September 2025
Criterion is a positive September price return: Sep-30-2025 close (6,688.46) > Aug-29-2025 close (6,460.26), +3.53%. Multiple independent credible sources agree the month was positive; no conflicting evidence. Closing levels should be re-confirmed against official S&P Dow Jones Indices / FRED data at scoring time, but the direction (positive) is unambiguous.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee's Bold September Call
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 closed September 2025 at 6,688.46 (2025-09-30) versus 6,460.26 on 2025-08-29 (last trading day of August), a price return of +3.53% for the month — a positive September, satisfying the written criterion.
CNBC market wrap (2025-09-29): 'Dow closes at record high, S&P 500 logs winning month' — corroborates that September 2025 was a positive month for the S&P 500.
Bloomberg (2025-09-30): 'S&P 500 Set to End September Higher' — independent confirmation of a positive monthly return.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.51- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US stock market (S&P 500) will post a positive return f…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources