Full record
HitmarketsSeptember 2025 is an up month for US stocks.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We see September as an up month for stocks”
September 2025 is an up month for US stocks.
- Made on
- 2025-09-02
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-30
The S&P 500's close on 2025-09-30 is above its close on 2025-08-29 (the last trading day before September), i.e. a positive price return for the calendar month of September 2025.
Criterion met cleanly and unambiguously. The two reference closes were pulled from two independent providers (FRED/S&P Dow Jones Indices and Yahoo Finance ^GSPC) and agree exactly: 6,460.26 -> 6,688.46, +3.53%. 2025-08-29 was indeed the last trading day before September 2025 (2025-09-01 was Labor Day) and 2025-09-30 was the last trading day of the month, so both endpoints named in the criterion are the correct ones. No conflicting evidence found. Outcome value deliberately not assigned (later stage).
Sources
Evidence of what happened
FRED series SP500 (S&P 500 daily closing level, sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices) gives close 2025-08-29 = 6,460.26 and close 2025-09-30 = 6,688.46 — a gain of 228.20 points (+3.53%) for the calendar month of September 2025, i.e. a positive price return exactly as the criterion specifies.
Independent confirmation from Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily OHLC: 2025-08-29 close 6,460.26 (O 6,489.28 / H 6,491.76 / L 6,444.57); 2025-09-30 close 6,688.46 (O 6,656.19 / H 6,691.25 / L 6,641.00). Values match the FRED series to the cent.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
September 2025 is an up month for US stocks.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-02
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources