Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 2025 meeting.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“for the first time since last year, the Fed is cutting in September”
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 2025 meeting.
- Made on
- 2025-09-12
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-17
The FOMC lowers the federal funds target range at its September 2025 meeting (Sept 16-17, 2025), per the official FOMC statement.
Criterion met. Evidence is the primary official source named in the criterion itself (the FOMC statement), retrieved from federalreserve.gov and corroborated by a Wayback capture taken 2025-09-18, one day after the meeting. The vote was not unanimous: Stephen I. Miran dissented, preferring a larger 1/2 percentage point reduction. That dissent does not affect resolution — the criterion asks only whether the FOMC lowered the target range, and a dissent favoring a deeper cut still means the Committee cut. No conflicting evidence found. Outcome value deliberately not assigned (later stage).
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: S&P Tech at Record High — Is AI Still Undervalued?
Fundstrat (YouTube) / CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Official FOMC statement dated 2025-09-17 states verbatim: "the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent." This lowers the target range from 4.25-4.50% to 4.00-4.25%, i.e. a 25 bp cut at the September 16-17, 2025 meeting, exactly the event the criterion specifies.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its September 20…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-12
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources