Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year at its September 2025 meeting
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“it's going to cut for the first time in September”
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year at its September 2025 meeting
- Made on
- 2025-09-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.86
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-17
The FOMC announces a reduction in the federal funds target rate at its September 2025 meeting, and this is the first such cut of 2025
Both parts of the criterion satisfied: (1) the FOMC announced a rate reduction at its September 2025 meeting (decision announced 2025-09-17), and (2) it was the first cut of 2025 — the Fed had held rates steady through the January, March, May, June, and July 2025 meetings. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee's Bold September Call
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC meeting of September 16-17, 2025 lowered the federal funds target range by 25 bps, from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25% (11-1 vote; Gov. Miran dissented favoring 50 bps). Official Federal Reserve source (FOMC minutes, Sep 16-17, 2025).
CNBC (2025-09-17): Fed cut rates by a quarter point at its September 2025 meeting, its first rate reduction of 2025 (rates had been held steady since the three cuts in 2024).
J.P. Morgan Asset Management FOMC statement summary (September 2025): confirms the 25 bps cut to 4.00%-4.25% and that it was the first cut of the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.86- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-09-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources