Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 makes a breakaway move to new all-time highs, toward 6,500-6,600, during August 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“in early July, on July 9th, Bitcoin had a breakaway upside move, gaining more than 10%. That means that in this month, I think the S&P is going to have a breakaway move to the upside, you know, towards 6,600.”
The S&P 500 makes a breakaway move to new all-time highs, toward 6,500-6,600, during August 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-08-06
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-08-28
TRUE if, at any point between 2025-08-06 and 2025-08-31, the S&P 500 both (a) sets a new all-time closing high above its pre-August-2025 record and (b) reaches an index level of 6,500 or higher (intraday or close). 'Towards 6,600' is read as the direction of the move, so 6,500 is the threshold that must be touched; failing to make a new all-time high, or failing to reach 6,500, resolves FALSE.
Both written prongs are satisfied within the 2025-08-06 to 2025-08-31 window. Prong (a): new all-time closing highs were set on 2025-08-12 (6,445.76) and again on 2025-08-28 (6,501.86), each above the pre-August record close of 6,389.77 (2025-07-28). Prong (b): 6,500 was reached on 2025-08-28 on both bases (intraday 6,508.23, close 6,501.86). Worth flagging for the display layer but NOT part of the criterion: the index did not get near the upper end of the quoted 6,500-6,600 range during August - the August peak was 6,508.23, only 8 points past the threshold, and 6,600 was not touched until September. The criterion explicitly reads 'towards 6,600' as direction and fixes 6,500 as the operative threshold, so that shortfall does not change the resolution. Two independent sources (Yahoo bar data and the Wikipedia milestone list) agree on the 6,501.86 / 2025-08-28 figure. Caution for downstream reviewers: an early sub-model summarization pass on this same Yahoo data misreported an August high of 6,532.64 dated 2025-08-24 (a Sunday); that was a hallucination, corrected by reading the raw timestamp/high/close arrays - the 6,532.04 value actually belongs to the 2025-09-10 close.
Sources
Ethereum is having its bitcoin 2017 moment again, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC Television (YouTube) ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: S&P 7000? & Ethereum's Having Its Bitcoin 2017 Moment
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Ethereum is having its bitcoin 2017 moment again, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Strong August Rally Ahead – S&P 500 to Reach 6,500-6,600?
Fundstrat (YouTube) / CNBC ·
Expect the S&P 500 to reach new all-time highs in August, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: S&P Rerating Has Begun + Breakout Rally Could Start Within Days
Fundstrat (YouTube) / CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Yahoo Finance daily bars for the S&P 500 (^GSPC), 2025-07-01 to 2025-07-31, establish the pre-August-2025 record close: the highest July 2025 close was 6,389.77 on 2025-07-28 (unix 1753709400). This is the benchmark the criterion's prong (a) must be exceeded against.
Yahoo Finance daily bars for ^GSPC covering 2025-08-20 to 2025-09-03. The 2025-08-28 bar (unix 1756387800) shows an intraday high of 6,508.23 and a close of 6,501.86 - simultaneously a new all-time closing high (above the 6,389.77 July record) and a level of 6,500 or higher. August's maximum intraday high for the month was that same 6,508.23.
Wikipedia's S&P 500 closing-milestones list independently corroborates: first close above 6,400 was 2025-08-12 at 6,445.76 and first close above 6,500 was 2025-08-28 at 6,501.86, both new all-time closing highs set inside the August 2025 window.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 makes a breakaway move to new all-time highs, t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-06
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources