Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively in 2025, delivering roughly 2.5 cuts
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“I do think that's the pivot that's coming”
The Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively in 2025, delivering roughly 2.5 cuts
- Made on
- 2025-08-05
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.02
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-10-29
The Federal Reserve delivers at least two 25bp rate cuts (cumulatively ≥50bps, consistent with ~2.5 cuts) during calendar year 2025.
Criterion (≥2 25bp cuts, cumulatively ≥50bps, during calendar 2025) is met with margin: three cuts totaling 75bps. resolved_on set to 2025-10-29, the date the second cut delivered the cumulative ≥50bps threshold; a third cut on 2025-12-10 further confirmed. Note the criterion's ≥2-cuts bar is a firm, unambiguous outcome; the parenthetical '~2.5 cuts' framing in the original claim is not the graded threshold.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Why Markets Are Suddenly Pricing In More Fed Rate Cuts for 2025
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC delivered three consecutive 25bp cuts in 2025 — September (decision Sep 17), October (decision Oct 29), and December (decision Dec 10) — totaling 75bps. The criterion of ≥2 cuts (cumulatively ≥50bps) was crossed at the October cut.
Federal Reserve official FOMC statement, Dec 9-10, 2025: cut the target range by 25bps to 3.50%-3.75%, the third reduction of the year — confirming full-year 2025 cuts of 75bps across three meetings.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.02- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively in 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-05
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources