Full record
HiteconomyThe Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“The Fed will finally cut rates, after being on 'pause' for entire 2025 [and] the ISM will finally recover >50, after spending 28-months plus below 50,”
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-08-20
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-09-17
TRUE if the FOMC announces a reduction of at least 25 basis points in the federal funds target range at any meeting held between 2025-08-20 and 2025-12-31, relative to the range prevailing on 2025-08-20; FALSE if the target range is unchanged or raised across that period.
Criterion asks for at least one 25bp-or-larger reduction announced at a meeting held between 2025-08-20 and 2025-12-31, measured against the range prevailing on 2025-08-20. The range on 2025-08-20 was 4.25-4.50% (unchanged since December 2024 - the Fed's 2025 table shows no action before September). Three consecutive 25bp cuts followed, leaving the range at 3.50-3.75% on 2025-12-31, a cumulative 75bp reduction. Resolved_on is set to 2025-09-17, the date of the first qualifying FOMC announcement; note the Fed's openmarket.htm table dates each action by its EFFECTIVE date (2025-09-18), which is the business day after the announcement - the criterion keys on the announcement, hence the 09-17 date. All sources are federalreserve.gov primary. No conflicting evidence.
Sources
Strategist Tom Lee says the S&P 500 can reach as high as 7,000 - if two conditions are met
MarketWatch (via Morningstar) ·
Evidence of what happened
Federal Reserve Board's official open market operations table lists exactly three federal funds target rate actions in 2025, all reductions of 25 basis points: effective 2025-09-18 to a 4.00-4.25% range, effective 2025-10-30 to 3.75-4.00%, and effective 2025-12-11 to 3.50-3.75%.
Federal Reserve FOMC calendar confirms the qualifying meetings fall inside the 2025-08-20 to 2025-12-31 window: September 16-17, October 28-29, and December 9-10, 2025. The September statement was issued 2025-09-17.
FOMC policy statement of 2025-09-17 announcing the first of the three cuts, lowering the target range to 4.00-4.25%.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates before the end of 2…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-08-20
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources