Bitcoin reaches at least $200,000 by 2025-12-31.

What counted as right

Status

resolved

Settled on

2025-12-31

TRUE if bitcoin trades at or above US$200,000 per coin (spot price on major exchanges, intraday or closing basis) at any point on or before 2025-12-31; FALSE if it does not. The '250' figure was hedged as a 'maybe' and is not required.

Criterion is 'trades at or above US$200,000 on a major exchange, intraday or closing, at any point on or before 2025-12-31'. Coinbase (a major spot exchange) daily candles across all of calendar 2025 show a peak intraday print of $126,296 on 2025-10-06, roughly 63% of the $200k threshold, and a 2025-12-31 close of $87,497.94. The threshold was never approached on any basis. No conflicting credible evidence found. Resolved_on set to the deadline because the criterion is an 'at any point on or before' test that can only be settled when the window closes. Note the criterion's own carve-out already excludes the hedged '250' figure, so only the $200k leg was assessed. WebSearch budget for this session was exhausted, so evidence was gathered by fetching exchange/official endpoints directly rather than via search; sources used are exchange-primary.

Sources

• Bitcoin may still have steam for $250K this year: Fundstrat's Tom Lee

  Cointelegraph · 2025-08-06

  Source

• The worst and best part of Tom Lee's predictions: they're too early

  Blockworks · 2025-08-26

  Source