Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 ends 2025 higher than its level on 2025-06-23.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“In in some ways it actually strengthens the case for stocks to do better into year end ... I'd almost say that you've put another stress test into the market. We've seen it pass it and I think it means stocks should do pretty well.”
The S&P 500 ends 2025 higher than its level on 2025-06-23.
- Made on
- 2025-06-23
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
Resolves TRUE if the S&P 500's closing level on the final US trading day of 2025 is above its closing level on 2025-06-23. Resolves FALSE if it closes at or below that level.
Criterion compares the closing level on the final US trading day of 2025 against the 2025-06-23 close. Final trading day confirmed as 2025-12-31 (next session is 2026-01-02, and the 2025 series contains 251 sessions). 6,845.50 exceeds 6,025.17 by a wide margin (+13.6%), far outside any rounding or vendor-discrepancy concern, so the result does not depend on which data vendor is used. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee: How Middle East Tensions Are Impacting His Market Outlook
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily closes: 6,025.17 on 2025-06-23 (the reference date named in the claim) and 6,845.50 on 2025-12-31. The index therefore ended 2025 higher by 820.33 points, or +13.6%.
Confirmation that 2025-12-31 was the final US trading day of 2025: the daily series runs continuously to a 2025-12-31 bar (open 6,898.82, high 6,901.42, low 6,844.55, close 6,845.50) with the next bar dated 2026-01-02, so no later 2025 session exists.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 ends 2025 higher than its level on 2025-06-23.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-06-23
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources