Full record
HitmarketsUS stocks stage a V-shaped recovery beginning after 2 April 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“So I think that the odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2nd is just extremely high, because we've already sequenced a lot of the panic that people saw in 2018. I think it's already taking place.”
US stocks stage a V-shaped recovery beginning after 2 April 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-03-27
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.94
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-27
'V-shaped recovery' is operationalized as a full round-trip retracement of the tariff-driven drawdown: the S&P 500 closes at or above its pre-selloff record closing high (the 19 February 2025 all-time high) at any point on or before 2025-12-31, with the index having bottomed within three months of 2 April 2025 (a sharp trough rather than a prolonged, drawn-out base). Both legs required.
Trough timing qualifies on both a closing basis (2025-04-08) and an intraday basis (2025-04-07), so the choice of convention does not affect the result. resolved_on is the date the second (binding) leg completed. Note for the scoring stage: the claim was made 2025-03-27, before the 2025-04-02 tariff announcement, and the recovery it describes did occur on the criterion's own terms. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value (o) assigned.
Sources
Odds of a V-shaped recovery in stocks that come after April 2 is extremely high: Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Stocks Could Make V-shaped Recovery, Tom Lee Says on CNBC
Fundstrat Direct ·
'Extremely High' Odds of V-Shaped Recovery for Stock Market, According to Fundstrat's Tom Lee
The Daily Hodl ·
Stocks Can Recover From This 'Heart Attack,' Tom Lee Says on CNBC
Fundstrat Direct ·
Tom Lee Predicts A V-Shaped Recovery For US Stocks, Pins Hope On 'Trump Put': 'It's Going To Take A Little Time'
Benzinga ·
Tom Lee sees a 'V-shaped' recovery and getting long these 'washed out' stocks
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
Both legs of the operationalized criterion are satisfied in the official daily closes. Leg 1 (sharp trough within three months of 2025-04-02): the S&P 500 bottomed at a closing low of 4,982.77 on 2025-04-08, just 6 days after 2025-04-02 (intraday low 4,835.04 on 2025-04-07) — a sharp trough, not a prolonged base. Leg 2 (full round-trip to the pre-selloff record close): the pre-selloff all-time closing high was 6,144.15 on 2025-02-19; the index first closed at or above that level on 2025-06-27 at 6,173.07, well inside the 2025-12-31 deadline. Round trip completed in about 80 calendar days from the trough.
Independent account of the 2025 selloff and recovery confirms a V-shaped path and the recovery date: 2025-04-09 saw a 9.52% single-day S&P 500 gain (largest since 2008) on the tariff pause; by 2025-05-02 the index had closed back above its 2025-04-02 level after nine consecutive daily gains; on 2025-05-13 it turned positive for the year; and on 2025-06-27 it set a new all-time high close of 6,173.07.
Yahoo Finance ^GSPC daily OHLC independently reproduces the two anchor prints to the cent: 2025-02-19 close 6,144.15 (pre-selloff record) and 2025-06-27 close 6,173.07 (first close above it), with the 2025-04-08 closing trough at 4,982.77.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.94- How sure they sounded
- 90%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US stocks stage a V-shaped recovery beginning after 2 April…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-27
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources