Full record
MissgeopoliticsThe US negotiates a tariff/trade deal before April 2, 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missgeopolitics“my I would say the most probable thing is there's a deal uh before April 2nd.”
The US negotiates a tariff/trade deal before April 2, 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-03-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-01
The United States publicly announces a concluded tariff or trade agreement with at least one major trading partner (China, the European Union, Canada, or Mexico) on or before 2025-04-01. A unilateral delay, exemption or pause in tariffs does not count; a negotiated bilateral agreement does.
The criterion expressly excludes unilateral delays, exemptions and pauses, which is exactly what the qualifying window contains (the 2025-02-01 IEEPA tariffs with USMCA carve-outs and the early-March suspensions). The first concluded US trade agreements of 2025 came in May 2025 (UK, then a 90-day US-China truce), after the 2025-04-01 deadline. Coverage caveat logged for transparency: this session's WebSearch budget was exhausted, so verification rests on the primary EO text plus a dated secondary timeline rather than an exhaustive enumeration of USTR press releases; no contrary evidence surfaced, and the EO's own 'efforts have stalled' finding is primary-source and directly on point. No outcome value (o) assigned.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee Breaks Down 2025: Tailwinds, Inflation Risks, and the Bull Case for Bitcoin
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
Executive Order 14257 ('Regulating Imports With a Reciprocal Tariff...'), signed 2025-04-02 and published in the Federal Register 2025-04-07, is the authoritative statement of US trade posture at the criterion deadline. It declares a national emergency over trade deficits and imposes a 10% baseline duty (effective 2025-04-05) plus country-specific rates (effective 2025-04-09). Its findings state that efforts to address the imbalances 'have stalled' and that trading partners have blocked multilateral and plurilateral solutions; it names China, the EU, Canada and Mexico as non-reciprocal partners and describes remediation as prospective (future tariff modification if partners take steps), not concluded. No concluded agreement with any of the four named partners is referenced.
White House posting of the same 2025-04-02 executive order, confirming date and content (10% baseline duty from 2025-04-05, country-specific rates from 2025-04-09; negotiations described as unresolved).
Dated timeline of US tariff actions 2025-01-20 through 2025-04-02 shows only unilateral measures in the qualifying window: 2025-02-01 IEEPA tariffs (25% Canada/Mexico, 10% China) with USMCA-compliant Canadian and Mexican goods promptly suspended; 2025-02-13 announcement of planned reciprocal tariffs; 2025-03-04 China fentanyl tariff raised 10%→20%; 2025-03-12 25% steel and aluminium tariffs. No concluded, negotiated bilateral agreement with China, the EU, Canada or Mexico is recorded on or before 2025-04-01. The same source states that as late as end-June 2025 the US had signed only a deal with the UK and a 90-day temporary deal with China — both after the deadline, and the UK is not among the four named partners.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US negotiates a tariff/trade deal before April 2, 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources