Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500's low for the first half of 2025 was already set by mid-March 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“there's a very good chance we made our low for the first half already or maybe for the year”
The S&P 500's low for the first half of 2025 was already set by mid-March 2025.
- Made on
- 2025-03-17
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-04-03
The S&P 500 does not close below its lowest close of the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-17 at any point through 2025-06-30 — i.e. the first-half 2025 closing low is dated on or before 2025-03-17.
Criterion is unambiguous and both data sources agree exactly. The written criterion ('does not close below its lowest close of the period 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-17 at any point through 2025-06-30') was irrevocably breached on the first sub-5,521.52 close, 2025-04-03, which is what resolved_on records; the full H1 window closed 2025-06-30 with the low still dated 2025-04-08. The April drawdown followed the 2025-04-02 reciprocal-tariff executive order. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value (o) assigned — scoring is a later stage.
Sources
Fundstrat's Tom Lee Breaks Down 2025: Tailwinds, Inflation Risks, and the Bull Case for Bitcoin
Fundstrat (YouTube) ·
Evidence of what happened
Official S&P 500 daily closing levels (S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC data, retrieved as the full FRED SP500 daily series): the lowest close in the 2025-01-01 to 2025-03-17 window was 5,521.52 on 2025-03-13. The index subsequently closed BELOW that level on 15 trading days, from 2025-04-03 (5,396.52) through 2025-04-24 (5,484.77). The lowest close of the whole first half of 2025 was 4,982.77 on 2025-04-08 — roughly 9.8% below the 2025-03-13 level. The first-half-2025 closing low is therefore dated 2025-04-08, NOT on or before 2025-03-17.
Independent cross-check against Yahoo Finance daily OHLC for ^GSPC (2025-01-02 to 2025-12-31, 250 trading days) reproduces the same values to the cent: 2025-03-13 close 5,521.52 (window low); 2025-04-08 close 4,982.77 (H1 low). The intraday low of the selloff was 4,835.04 on 2025-04-07, also far below any level reached on or before 2025-03-17.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500's low for the first half of 2025 was already se…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-03-17
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources