Full record
HitmarketsUS equities rise in the week of 10 February 2025, helped by a benign January CPI report on Wednesday 12 February.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“We expect a positive week ahead, aided by what we expect to be a benign Jan CPI report Wed”
US equities rise in the week of 10 February 2025, helped by a benign January CPI report on Wednesday 12 February.
- Made on
- 2025-02-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
- Effect on score
- +1.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-14
The S&P 500's close on Friday 2025-02-14 is higher than its close on Friday 2025-02-07 (a positive week for US equities). The CPI leg is treated as supporting rationale, not a separate scored claim; the record resolves on the weekly index move alone.
The scored leg is met cleanly: the criterion resolves on the weekly index move alone, and 6,114.63 > 6,025.99 (+1.47%). resolved_on is 2025-02-14, the date of the terminal close. Important nuance to carry forward, though the criterion explicitly excludes it from scoring: the stated mechanism did not hold. The January 2025 CPI released on Wednesday 2025-02-12 was firm rather than benign — headline inflation at 3.00% year over year with core at 3.28%, and monthly seasonally adjusted gains of about 0.4% on both headline and core — and the S&P 500 fell on the release day itself (-0.27%). The week finished positive because of the rebound on Thursday 2025-02-13 (+1.05%), after the CPI day, not because of it. So this is a case where the outcome leg succeeded while the reasoning leg failed; the record's own criterion instructs that only the index move is scored, but the divergence is material for any qualitative or calibration commentary and should not be lost. Small methodological note on the CPI figures: BLS computes its published percent changes from unrounded indexes, so my figures derived from the rounded published index levels can differ by a rounding tick from BLS's headline percentages; the direction and the 3-handle year-over-year reading are not sensitive to this. I could not retrieve the BLS news-release HTML page directly (bls.gov returned HTTP 403 to automated retrieval, which I did not attempt to circumvent), so the CPI numbers come from BLS's sanctioned programmatic API instead.
Sources
Video: Macro Minute: We expect a positive week ahead, aided by what we expect to be a benign Jan CPI report Wed
Fundstrat Direct ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily closes from the Yahoo Finance chart API, covering exactly the two anchor dates in the criterion: close on Friday 2025-02-07 = 6,025.99; close on Friday 2025-02-14 = 6,114.63. The 2025-02-14 close is higher than the 2025-02-07 close by 88.64 points, or +1.47%. The criterion — a positive week measured Friday close to Friday close — is met.
Intra-week path from the same daily series, showing the week was not monotonic and that the gain was built after the CPI print, not on it: 2025-02-10 close 6,066.44; 2025-02-11 close 6,068.50; 2025-02-12 close 6,051.97 (CPI release day — the index fell 16.53 points, -0.27%); 2025-02-13 close 6,115.07; 2025-02-14 close 6,114.63.
The CPI leg, from BLS's own data (public BLS API, series CUUR0000SA0, CUSR0000SA0, CUSR0000SA0L1E), for the January 2025 CPI report released Wednesday 2025-02-12: 12-month change in CPI-U (not seasonally adjusted) = +3.00%; seasonally adjusted CPI-U = +0.43% month-over-month; core CPI-U (all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted) = +0.43% month-over-month and +3.28% over 12 months. Percentage changes computed from BLS published index levels (Jan 2025 NSA 317.671 vs Jan 2024 308.417; Jan 2025 SA 318.961 vs Dec 2024 317.604; core SA 324.638 vs 323.259). Headline 12-month inflation printed with a 3-handle, and the equity market fell on the release day.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+1.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 2 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US equities rise in the week of 10 February 2025, helped by…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2025-02-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources