Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 reaches close to 7,000 in the first half of 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“In the first half of next year, I think S&P can get close to 7,000.”
The S&P 500 reaches close to 7,000 in the first half of 2025.
- Made on
- 2024-12-30
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +0.46
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-06-30
The S&P 500 trades at or above 6,860 (within 2% of 7,000, operationalizing 'close to 7,000') on an intraday or closing basis at any point between 2025-01-01 and 2025-06-30.
Two independent sources agree on the decisive number (6,204.95 close on 2025-06-30), and they agree on the surrounding path, so there is no conflicting evidence. The margin is very large — the index fell about 9.4% short of the operationalized 6,860 trigger — so this does not turn on data-vendor precision or on the choice between intraday and closing basis; neither basis comes close. resolved_on is set to 2025-06-30, the last day of the criterion window, since that is the date the outcome became final. Worth flagging for the later stage as timing-versus-direction context, not as criterion evidence: the level in question was in fact reached, but in H2 2025 rather than H1, and only after a deep intervening drawdown in April 2025. The criterion as written is strictly bounded to 2025-01-01 through 2025-06-30, so the H2 move is outside it.
Sources
S&P 500 could get close to 7,000 in the first half of next year, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Tom Lee, who nailed 2024's rally, is out with his 2025 outlook. Here's what he sees next
CNBC ·
Veteran analyst who predicted the S&P 500's rally unveils target for 2025
Yahoo Finance / TheStreet ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 (^GSPC) daily OHLC for the full criterion window, 2025-01-02 through 2025-06-30 (122 trading sessions), retrieved from the Yahoo Finance chart API. Maximum intraday high across the entire window: 6,215.08 on 2025-06-30. Maximum close: 6,204.95, also on 2025-06-30. The index therefore never traded at or above the 6,860 trigger on either an intraday or closing basis at any point in H1 2025. The H1 peak was 9.4% below the 6,860 threshold and 11.2% below 7,000 itself.
Independent corroboration of the H1 peak and of when 6,800+ was actually reached: the S&P 500 closing-milestones record shows the highest record close on or before 2025-06-30 was 6,204.95 on 2025-06-30 (the 6,200 milestone), matching the market-data figure exactly. The index did not first close above 6,800 until 2025-10-27, and above 6,900 until 2025-12-11 — roughly four and six months after the 2025-06-30 deadline. The 6,860 level was thus first reachable only in late October 2025, well outside the window.
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Quote is from a CNBC broadcast/caption track (third-party reputable outlet); correct tier is reputable_secondary_direct — primary-equivalent, still passes quote_exact.
Effect on the score
+0.46- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 reaches close to 7,000 in the first half of 202…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources