Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 rallies to 6,300 by 2024-12-31.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“3 reasons we see investors 'buy the dip' and drive a Dec rally to 6,300”
The S&P 500 rallies to 6,300 by 2024-12-31.
- Made on
- 2024-12-15
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-31
The S&P 500 trades at or above 6,300 (intraday or closing print) at any point on or before 2024-12-31. A 'rally to' a level resolves on the level being reached at any point inside the window.
Criterion allows an intraday OR closing print, so intraday was checked too. Using exchange daily OHLC bars for the Cboe-listed SPX index (retrieved via Interactive Brokers market data, closes verified day-for-day against the Cboe official history for every December 2024 session): the highest intraday print between 2024-12-15 and 2024-12-31 was 6,085.19 on 2024-12-16, and the highest intraday print of all 2024 was the record 6,099.97 on 2024-12-06. 6,300 sat 3.3% above that all-time intraday high, so neither the intraday nor the closing test was met at any point on or before 2024-12-31. One minor data quirk in the vendor bars (2024-12-24 high printed marginally below the official close) is immaterial at this distance from the threshold. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
Evidence of what happened
Cboe official SPX daily closing-level history. Between the statement date 2024-12-15 and the 2024-12-31 deadline the highest close was 6,074.08 (2024-12-16); the index then fell sharply on 2024-12-18 (close 5,872.16) and ended the year at 5,881.63 on 2024-12-31. The highest close in all of 2024 was 6,090.27 on 2024-12-06. No 2024 session closed at or above 6,300 - the year's best close was 3.4% below it.
Closing milestones of the S&P 500: the index first closed above 6,100 on 2025-01-23 (6,118.71) and first closed at or above 6,300 on 2025-07-21 (6,305.60), roughly seven months after the 2024-12-31 deadline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 rallies to 6,300 by 2024-12-31.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources