Full record
MisseconomyThe US 30-year mortgage rate falls to 6% during 2025 as its spread to the 10-year Treasury normalizes.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Misseconomy“MORTGAGE RATES: 30-yr drops to 6% as spread to 10Y normalizes”
The US 30-year mortgage rate falls to 6% during 2025 as its spread to the 10-year Treasury normalizes.
- Made on
- 2024-12-10
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -1.33
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-12-31
TRUE if the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 30-year fixed-rate average records a weekly reading at or below 6.00% (a reading that rounds to 6.0%, i.e. 6.04% or lower, also counts) in any week of calendar 2025; FALSE if every 2025 weekly PMMS reading is above that level. The 'as spread to 10Y normalizes' clause is Lee's stated mechanism, not a separate condition, and is not graded on its own.
Criterion threshold is a PMMS 30-year weekly reading at or below 6.00%, with 6.04% or lower counted as rounding to 6.0%. The lowest 2025 weekly reading was 6.15%, i.e. 0.11pp above the rounding-inclusive threshold and 0.15pp above 6.00%; the year opened at 6.91% (01/02) and peaked at 7.04% (01/16). Rates did fall materially over 2025 (roughly 6.9% to 6.15%) but never touched the stated level. The 'as spread to 10Y normalizes' clause is Lee's mechanism and is not graded separately, per the criterion. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
2025 Year Ahead: Two “puts” make a right
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
Evidence of what happened
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey full weekly history (official PMMS dataset, 1971-present). Calendar 2025 contains 53 weekly 30-year fixed-rate readings. The minimum for the year was 6.15% (survey dated 2025-12-31); the maximum was 7.04% (2025-01-16). No 2025 weekly reading was at or below 6.04%. The ten lowest 2025 readings were 6.15% (12/31), 6.17% (10/30), 6.18% (12/24), 6.19% (10/23), 6.19% (12/04), 6.21% (12/18), 6.22% (11/06), 6.22% (12/11), 6.23% (11/26), 6.24% (11/13).
Freddie Mac's own PMMS release page as of 2025-12-31, headlined 'Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in 2025': 'the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved to its lowest level in 2025 this week... The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.15% as of December 31, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.18%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.91%.' This is Freddie Mac stating directly that 6.15% was the 2025 low.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-1.33- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The US 30-year mortgage rate falls to 6% during 2025 as its…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources