Full record
HiteconomyISM manufacturing recovers back above 50.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“It's really evident in looking at measures like the ISM manufacturing that's been below 50 since October 2022. And that's highly correlated with S&P earnings growth. I do think that's going to recover to back above 50.”
ISM manufacturing recovers back above 50.
- Made on
- 2024-12-30
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2025-02-03
The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI prints at or above 50.0 for at least one reference month whose report is released on or before 2025-12-31.
Criterion is a threshold test ('at least one reference month'), and it is satisfied unambiguously by primary ISM releases. resolved_on is set to 2025-02-03, the release date of the first qualifying report (January 2025), which is the earliest date the criterion was met. Both qualifying prints post-date the 2024-12-30 claim date, so there is no look-back problem: ISM's own January report puts the pre-claim December 2024 reading at 49.2 (seasonally adjusted), i.e. below 50 when the call was made. Scope note for the later stage: I verified December 2024 (49.2 SA), January 2025 (50.9) and February 2025 (50.3) directly; I did not systematically verify the March-November 2025 monthly prints, because they cannot change a criterion already met. Contextually the index did fall back below 50 after February 2025, so anyone reading the record should understand this as a brief touch above 50 rather than a sustained recovery — but the written criterion asks only for one qualifying month, not persistence. Both source pages were retrieved via Wayback captures because ISM reuses month-name URLs (the live /january/ and /february/ paths now serve 2026 reports); the archive_url values are the authoritative retrieval points.
Sources
S&P 500 could get close to 7,000 in the first half of next year, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
CNBC ·
Evidence of what happened
ISM's own January 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, issued 2025-02-03, states: "The Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9 percent in January, 1.7 percentage points higher compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent recorded in December." The release headline reads "Manufacturing PMI at 50.9%" and the body says economic activity in the manufacturing sector "expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction." This is a headline print at or above 50.0 for reference month January 2025, released 2025-02-03 — inside the criterion's on-or-before-2025-12-31 release window.
ISM's February 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business (issued 2025-03-03) independently corroborates the January figure and supplies a second qualifying month: "The Manufacturing PMI registered 50.3 percent in February, 0.6 percentage point lower compared to the 50.9 percent recorded in January." It describes the sector as having "expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction." So the criterion is met twice within the window (Jan 2025 = 50.9, released 2025-02-03; Feb 2025 = 50.3, released 2025-03-03).
Corrections
- Quote sourcing: Quote is from a CNBC broadcast/caption track (third-party reputable outlet, not Lee's own channel); correct tier is reputable_secondary_direct — primary-equivalent, still passes quote_exact.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
ISM manufacturing recovers back above 50.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-30
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources