Full record
HiteconomyUS inflation runs below 3% during 2025.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“INFLATION: Inflation tracks sub-3% on housing and used cars”
US inflation runs below 3% during 2025.
- Made on
- 2024-12-10
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.82
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2026-01-13
TRUE if US headline CPI-U year-over-year inflation (BLS, not seasonally adjusted, as first published) averages below 3.0% across the twelve reference months January through December 2025; FALSE if that twelve-month average is 3.0% or higher. Headline CPI is the measure because Lee named housing and used cars as the drivers. 'Tracks sub-3%' is read as the year's inflation running below 3% on average, not as a requirement that no single month print at or above 3.0%.
Criterion is the twelve-month average of headline CPI-U NSA year-over-year prints for Jan-Dec 2025. Data gap: October 2025 CPI was never produced because of the 2025 lapse in appropriations, so eleven of twelve reference months exist. The gap cannot flip the result - the eleven published months average 2.69%, and for a full twelve-month average to reach 3.0% the missing October would have to have printed 6.41% year-over-year, against neighbouring prints of 3.0% (Sep) and 2.7% (Nov); substituting even 3.0% for October yields a 2.72% average. I therefore treat this as resolved rather than unresolvable, and did not set needs_human_review, but the missing month should be recorded in the record's notes for transparency. NSA index levels are not subject to revision (the release's revision caveat applies to seasonally adjusted series), so current API values equal as-first-published, as the criterion requires. resolved_on is the 2026-01-13 release of December 2025 CPI, the last input needed. No conflicting evidence found. No outcome value assigned.
Sources
2025 Year Ahead: Two “puts” make a right
Fundstrat Global Advisors ·
Evidence of what happened
BLS CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0), retrieved from the BLS public API. Year-over-year change for each 2025 reference month: Jan 3.00%, Feb 2.82%, Mar 2.39%, Apr 2.31%, May 2.36%, Jun 2.67%, Jul 2.71%, Aug 2.92%, Sep 3.01%, Oct not published, Nov 2.74%, Dec 2.68%. Average across the eleven published months is 2.69%. Only Jan and Sep rounded to 3.0%; the April low was 2.3%. The October 2025 observation is returned as unavailable with the official BLS footnote 'Data unavailable due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations'.
BLS Consumer Price Index news release for December 2025 (USDL-26-0042, released 2026-01-13): 'Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent before seasonal adjustment... The all items index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ending December, the same increase as over the 12 months ending November.' The release also carries the note 'The Oct and Nov 2025 data values are not available due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations' (applying to the seasonally adjusted monthly changes; the NSA November index level was published, October was not).
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.82- How sure they sounded
- 85%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US inflation runs below 3% during 2025.- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-12-10
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources