Full record
MissmarketsThe S&P 500 will stall out (fail to advance, moving sideways-to-lower) in the near-term following the September 2024 Fed meeting
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“we probably do stall out after the FED”
The S&P 500 will stall out (fail to advance, moving sideways-to-lower) in the near-term following the September 2024 Fed meeting
- Made on
- 2024-09-19
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-12-19
The S&P 500 is flat-to-lower versus its Sept 18 2024 (FOMC-day) close and fails to make a meaningful new advance over the near-term window following the Sept 2024 FOMC.
Criterion asks whether the S&P was flat-to-lower vs its Sept 18 2024 close and failed to make a meaningful new advance. The record contradicts this: the index rose from 5,618.26 (Sept 18) to a run of new all-time highs (>6,000 by Nov 11, peak ~6,090 Dec 6) and finished the window near 5,872 — clearly higher and having made a meaningful new advance. Prediction of a stall / sideways-to-lower move is contradicted by the price action. Precise FOMC-day close and end-of-window levels are from primary/exchange price data; direction is unambiguous regardless of the exact resolved_on date within the window.
Sources
S&P: Stall Out Post Fed?🤔💥
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
FOMC-day baseline: S&P 500 closed at 5,618.26 on Sept 18, 2024 (the day of the Sept 2024 FOMC decision).
Rather than stalling, the index advanced meaningfully and made repeated new all-time highs after the Sept FOMC: it crossed 6,000 for the first time on Nov 11, 2024, closing at 6,001.35, part of 57 record closes in 2024.
At the end of the near-term window, even after a 3% drop on the Dec 2024 'hawkish cut', the S&P 500 closed at 5,872.03 on Dec 19, 2024 — roughly +4.5% above the Sept 18 FOMC-day close and well below its early-December peak (~6,090 on Dec 6), i.e. it had already made a substantial new advance.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will stall out (fail to advance, moving sideway…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources