Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500's August 2024 low (~5119) will hold — not be breached — over the next eight weeks
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“the August low should hold”
The S&P 500's August 2024 low (~5119) will hold — not be breached — over the next eight weeks
- Made on
- 2024-09-08
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-11-03
S&P 500 does not trade below its August 2024 intraday low (~5119) at any point through ~2024-11-03
Criterion: S&P 500 does not trade below its Aug 2024 intraday low (~5119) at any point through ~2024-11-03. Evidence is unambiguous — the deepest post-forecast trough (Sept 6, 2024) was ~5402–5408, some ~280–290 points clear of 5119, and the market made new highs thereafter. No breach occurred; the criterion is satisfied. resolved_on set to the deadline (2024-11-03), the date the eight-week window closes and the 'did not breach' condition becomes final. FRED S&P 500 series is a public daily-close record (close-only; the ~5119 and ~5402 intraday figures come from reporting) but the margin is far larger than any intraday-vs-close gap, so the outcome is not sensitive to that distinction. No conflicting evidence found.
Sources
Challenging Next Eight Weeks? 😱💥
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500's August 5, 2024 selloff ('Black Monday 2.0') marked the low of the period, with an intraday low of ~5119. This was the trough the prediction referenced.
The subsequent September 2024 pullback bottomed on Sept 6, 2024, when the S&P 500 CLOSED at 5408.42 (intraday low ~5402) — roughly 290 points ABOVE the ~5119 August low — then rebounded (Sept 9 close 5471.05). This was the lowest point of the Sep–Nov window.
After the early-September low, the index rallied to fresh all-time highs through October 2024 (above ~5860 by mid-October) and closed around 5728 on Nov 1, 2024. At no point between Aug 6 and Nov 3, 2024 did it trade below the ~5119 August low; the low held.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500's August 2024 low (~5119) will hold — not be br…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-09-08
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources