Full record
MissmarketsThe 2024-08 FOMC rate decision will trigger a 4-5% rally in U.S. equities within the following week
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Missmarkets“the fomc rate decision tomorrow is going to trigger a four to 5% rally over the next week”
The 2024-08 FOMC rate decision will trigger a 4-5% rally in U.S. equities within the following week
- Made on
- 2024-08-01
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- -0.84
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-08-08
The S&P 500 rises by at least 4% from the pre-FOMC (2024-08-01) close at some point within one week (by ~2024-08-08).
Criterion is a +4% S&P 500 rise from the 2024-08-01 close within one week (by ~2024-08-08). Outcome is the opposite of the predicted rally: the index sold off sharply (Aug 5 low close 5186.33, ~-4.8%) and never reached the +4% level (~5664.5) in the window. Note: there was no FOMC rate decision dated in August 2024 — the relevant meeting was July 30–31, 2024 (rates held); the criterion is nonetheless resolvable purely from the S&P 500 price path off the Aug-1 close. Primary market-data cross-check via IBKR index history was attempted but the endpoint returned an error; FRED SP500 series and contemporaneous CNBC market coverage corroborate the closes. No outcome value assigned (later stage).
Sources
Post FOMC: A Trigger to Rally? 👀🏁
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
S&P 500 closed at 5446.68 on 2024-08-01 (the pre/post-FOMC reference close). Rather than rallying, the index fell to 5186.33 on 2024-08-05, ~4.8% BELOW the Aug-1 close, during the early-August 2024 global selloff (yen carry-trade unwind; VIX spiked to ~65). It only partially recovered thereafter and stayed below the Aug-1 level through Aug 8, so it never rose 4% above 5446.68 at any point within the one-week window.
Historical S&P 500 daily closes confirm the Aug-1 close of 5446.68 and the Aug-5 close of 5186.33, with the index recovering only into the low-5300s by Aug 8 — none of which is at or above the +4% threshold (~5664.5) required by the criterion.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
-0.84- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Miss
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The 2024-08 FOMC rate decision will trigger a 4-5% rally in…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-08-01
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources