Full record
HitmarketsWith Biden stepping aside, a turnaround (upturn/outperformance) in financial-sector stocks will get underway.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“I think a turnaround in financials would be underway”
With Biden stepping aside, a turnaround (upturn/outperformance) in financial-sector stocks will get underway.
- Made on
- 2024-07-22
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-10-22
Financial-sector stocks (e.g., XLF / KRE) turn higher and begin outperforming the broad market within the window following Biden stepping aside.
'Turn higher' limb clearly met — XLF rose ~7% and made new highs within the window. 'Begin outperforming the broad market' limb met but only MODESTLY (~1-2 pts over S&P 500). For a rigorous outperformance test the scoring stage should compute XLF-vs-SPY relative return over the exact window (and could also check KRE regional banks). Market levels are IBKR weekly bars; direction and rough magnitude are firm.
Sources
Biden Steps Aside: Market Implications & Sector Insights Outlined by Fundstrat's Tom Lee
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
Biden announced he was stepping aside on July 21, 2024, setting the window start (~July 22). Financial-sector ETF XLF closed the week of July 22 (Fri July 26) at ~$43.41 (IBKR weekly OHLC, contract XLF/ARCA).
XLF turned higher over the window: after a brief Aug 5 dip (~$42.4 weekly close) it rose steadily to ~$47.62 by mid-October and closed the deadline week (Oct 21) at ~$46.63 — roughly +7.4% from the July-22 baseline, making successive new highs through Sept-Oct (IBKR weekly OHLC).
The +7.4% XLF move over ~July 22 → Oct 22 modestly exceeded the broad market over the same span (S&P 500 up ~5-6%), consistent with the mid-2024 rotation (post-July-11 CPI) into rate-sensitive value/financials/small-caps. Outperformance margin is modest, not dramatic.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
With Biden stepping aside, a turnaround (upturn/outperforma…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-22
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources