Full record
HiteconomyFollowing the July 11, 2024 CPI release, the market will price in a greater number of Fed rate cuts (rate-cut expectations rise).
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“this number is going to rise post CPI”
Following the July 11, 2024 CPI release, the market will price in a greater number of Fed rate cuts (rate-cut expectations rise).
- Made on
- 2024-07-11
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.27
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-07-11
Market-implied Fed rate-cut expectations for the remainder of 2024 (e.g., number of cuts priced in fed funds futures / CME FedWatch) increase relative to their pre-July-11-CPI level within the window.
Criterion (rate-cut expectations rise vs pre-July-11-CPI level within window) is met on the plain narrative and confirmed by the eventual September cut. For a fully quantitative anchor the later scoring stage may want the exact CME FedWatch / fed-funds-futures cuts-priced figure immediately before vs after July 11; direction is not in doubt. resolved_on set to the CPI release date when the repricing occurred; the shift persisted through the Oct 11 deadline.
Sources
Should the Market Expect More than 2 Cuts?🤔✂
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
June CPI (released July 11, 2024) came in below expectations: headline CPI -0.1% MoM, decelerating to 3.0% YoY from 3.3% in May (vs 3.1% expected) — the first negative monthly headline print since 2020. On release, Treasury yields fell and equity futures rose as the market moved to price in earlier/more Fed easing.
Following the report, fed funds futures traders increased bets on a September rate cut, with the data described as putting the economy 'firmly on the path' for a September cut; commentary framed the print as sealing the case for a September move — i.e., rate-cut expectations for the remainder of 2024 rose relative to the pre-July-11 level.
Corroboration that cooling June inflation 'paved the way for rate cuts' and materially lifted market rate-cut pricing into H2 2024. Within the record's window (to 2024-10-11) the Fed had already delivered a 50 bp cut (Sept 18) with further cuts priced — expectations unambiguously higher than pre-July-11-CPI.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.27- How sure they sounded
- 65%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Following the July 11, 2024 CPI release, the market will pr…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-07-11
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources