Full record
HiteconomyTreasury yields continue falling between late May and August 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“while I do expect that's going to continue uh really between the latter part of May and August”
Treasury yields continue falling between late May and August 2024
- Made on
- 2024-05-19
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-08-30
The 10-year Treasury yield is lower on 2024-08-31 than in late May 2024
Criterion: 10-year yield lower on 2024-08-31 than in late May 2024. Effective comparison uses the last business days (late May ~4.4–4.5%; Fri 2024-08-30 ~3.90–3.91%, since 08-31 was a Saturday). Yield fell roughly 50–60 bps → criterion MET. Directional outcome unambiguous; the exact 08-30 print (~3.90–3.91%) is from secondary snapshots because the FRED CSV endpoint returned 403 and could not be captured directly.
Sources
Is the Market showing Resistance? 🤔💪🏻📊
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
10-year Treasury yield ended May 31, 2024 at ~4.51% (late-May range ~4.4–4.5%, the baseline for the 'late May' comparison; claim made_on 2024-05-19).
By August 2024 the 10-year yield had fallen to ~3.9% (e.g. 3.89% as of 2024-08-16), and closed August 2024 near 3.90–3.91% on the last business day (2024-08-30; Aug 31 was a Saturday) — materially below late-May levels.
FRED DGS10 (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity) is the primary series confirming the late-May (~4.4–4.5%) vs end-August 2024 (~3.9%) decline.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Treasury yields continue falling between late May and Augus…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-05-19
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources