Full record
HiteconomyInterest rates and the US dollar will roll over following the FOMC meeting, aiding risk assets and crypto.
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hiteconomy“our base case is that it is going to result in the rolling over of rates the dollar uh and it's going to set up a more conducive environment for risk assets and of course crypto”
Interest rates and the US dollar will roll over following the FOMC meeting, aiding risk assets and crypto.
- Made on
- 2024-04-26
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
- Effect on score
- +2.76
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-05-15
Both the 10Y Treasury yield and the US dollar index (DXY) decline in the weeks following the late-Apr/early-May 2024 FOMC meeting.
Both legs of the criterion are satisfied in the weeks following the May 1, 2024 FOMC: the 10Y yield declined (≈4.63% around May 1 → ≈4.27–4.44% by mid-May, dropping further into June) AND the DXY declined (≈106 early May → ≈104 mid-May). Resolution date set to 2024-05-15, by which both had clearly declined; the record's deadline (2024-07-26) is also comfortably within the sustained-lower period. Directional facts are well-corroborated across CNBC, Bloomberg, Barchart and FX newswires; exact daily levels were not pinned to a single official H.15/ICE print here but the direction is unambiguous.
Sources
Buy in May & Go Away? 💸🤔
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The FOMC met Apr 30–May 1, 2024, held rates at 5.25–5.50%, and Powell explicitly downplayed the likelihood of a rate hike (dovish relative to fears). In the following weeks the 10Y Treasury yield declined: on May 3, 2024 the 10-year fell ~7 bp to ~4.50% after a weaker-than-expected April jobs report (175k payrolls vs 240k est., unemployment up to 3.9%).
The decline extended on the softer April CPI released May 15, 2024: the 10Y yield dropped sharply (~14 bp intraday) to roughly the mid-4.3% area, its lowest in weeks, as Fed-cut expectations rose — well below the ~4.63–4.68% level around the May 1 FOMC.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) also rolled over in the same window: it fell after the FOMC and on the weak May 3 jobs report and again on the softer May 15 CPI, retreating from the ~106 area at the start of May toward the ~104 area by mid-May 2024.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+2.76- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 3 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
Interest rates and the US dollar will roll over following t…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-04-26
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources