Full record
HitmarketsUS Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index will fall back down to their 2024 year-to-date lows by the end of 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“Suggests that they move back down towards lows for the year are likely”
US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index will fall back down to their 2024 year-to-date lows by the end of 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-13
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-09-27
Both the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index (DXY) revisit their 2024 year-to-date lows at some point on or before 2024-12-31
Criterion requires BOTH the 10Y yield and DXY to revisit their 2024 YTD lows on or before 2024-12-31; both did, in September 2024 — 10Y ~3.6% (~Sept 16-17) and DXY ~100.6-100.9 (late Aug through late Sept, absolute 2024 low ~100.16 in late September). resolved_on set to 2024-09-27 as the date by which both conditions were clearly satisfied. Note: both actually fell BELOW their pre-prediction (as-of 2024-03-13) YTD lows, which more than satisfies 'revisit.' No conflicting evidence. Exact daily lows from Treasury/FRED and ICE DXY series can be pinned in the quantify stage. Outcome value/scoring deferred.
Sources
Feb CPI Report: Trends Remain Positive?👀📈
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
10-year US Treasury yield fell to a 2024 trough of roughly 3.6% in mid-September 2024 (around 2024-09-16/17, ahead of the Fed's 50bp cut on 2024-09-18). This was below its earlier-2024 low (~3.88% in early February 2024), so the 10Y revisited and undercut its year-to-date low within the window.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) slid to its 2024 low near 100.6-100.9 in late August/September 2024 as the Fed signaled a September rate cut, after peaking above 106 in late June. This was below early-2024 levels (~101+ in Jan-Mar), so the DXY also revisited/undercut its year-to-date low.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index will fall back d…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-13
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources