Full record
HitmarketsThe S&P 500 will reach approximately 5,400–5,500 by the end of 2024
A scored prediction by Tom Lee, made on .
Scored prediction
Hitmarkets“The base case for markets actually is probably closer to 54 5500”
The S&P 500 will reach approximately 5,400–5,500 by the end of 2024
- Made on
- 2024-03-15
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
- Effect on score
- +3.68
What counted as right
- Status
- resolved
- Settled on
- 2024-06-12
The S&P 500 closes at or above ~5,400 (base-case 5,400–5,500 range) at some point on or before 2024-12-31
Criterion: S&P 500 closes at or above ~5,400 (base case 5,400-5,500) at some point on or before 2024-12-31. Clearly met — the index reached and closed above 5,400 by mid-June 2024 and traded far above the stated range for the rest of the year (year-end 5,881). resolved_on 2024-06-12 is approximate (first close above 5,400 in mid-June); the >=5,600 close on 2024-07-09 is the firmest documented confirmation. No conflicting evidence. Outcome value/scoring deferred.
Sources
S&P 500: Probability of a Full Year Gain?🤔📈
YouTube ·
Evidence of what happened
The S&P 500 first closed above 5,400 in mid-June 2024 and continued higher, closing above 5,600 for the first time on 2024-07-09 (5,633.91) — necessarily satisfying the '>= ~5,400 at some point' criterion well before the deadline.
The S&P 500 made 57 record highs in 2024 and closed the year at 5,881 (up 23.31%), remaining above 5,400 for the second half of the year.
Corrections
No public corrections.
Effect on the score
+3.68- How sure they sounded
- 80%
- Outcome
- Hit
- Importance
- 4 / 5
This page shows the scored prediction as published; the site doesn't recompute or adjust the score.
Where this came from
The S&P 500 will reach approximately 5,400–5,500 by the end…- Methodology version
- v1.0.0
- Last computed
- August 5, 2026
- Made on
- 2024-03-15
How this profile was built
Scored by independent judges
Predictions gathered and sourced
Independently verified against sources